Samuel AikulolaNigeria Data IntelligenceElectoral history2026/2027 PVC Collection TrackerPopulationMethodology

Nigeria State Population Scenarios

Research prototype | 36 states + FCT | 2027–2040

Illustrative scenarios only. Growth assumptions of 1.5%, 2.5% and 3.5% annually from the 2006 census. Not official forecasts or confidence intervals. No explicit migration, fertility, mortality or state-specific growth modelling.
Download all scenarios CSV

National scenario comparison — 2040

Low growth (1.5%)
232,975,829
Central growth (2.5%)
325,144,828
High growth (3.5%)
452,311,182

Each national total sums all 37 state/FCT values and is unaffected by search.

National growth scenarios, 2027–2040

● Low growth (1.5%) ● Central growth (2.5%) ● High growth (3.5%)
2027 2040 Population (relative scale)

Illustrative state population map — 2040

Scenario: Central growth. Green shading represents relative modelled state populations. Each label shows a state abbreviation, its population relative to the largest state (100%), and its illustrative population. These percentages are not annual growth rates.

Cross River: 30.77%; PVCs collected: 6,698,199Abuja Federal Capital Territory: 14.96%; PVCs collected: 3,255,896Ogun: 39.90%; PVCs collected: 8,685,097Oyo: 59.36%; PVCs collected: 12,921,567Sokoto: 39.38%; PVCs collected: 8,572,888Zamfara: 34.88%; PVCs collected: 7,591,647Lagos: 96.94%; PVCs collected: 21,100,931Akwa Ibom: 41.51%; PVCs collected: 9,034,505Bayelsa: 18.13%; PVCs collected: 3,946,501Ondo: 36.81%; PVCs collected: 8,013,045Delta: 43.74%; PVCs collected: 9,521,635Rivers: 55.30%; PVCs collected: 12,036,702Kwara: 25.16%; PVCs collected: 5,476,554Kogi: 35.25%; PVCs collected: 7,673,077Benue: 45.25%; PVCs collected: 9,848,549Borno: 44.37%; PVCs collected: 9,657,449Katsina: 61.71%; PVCs collected: 13,432,536Plateau: 34.11%; PVCs collected: 7,424,152Edo: 34.39%; PVCs collected: 7,486,284Jigawa: 46.39%; PVCs collected: 10,097,124Anambra: 44.44%; PVCs collected: 9,673,018Kano: 100.00%; PVCs collected: 21,767,010Nasarawa: 19.88%; PVCs collected: 4,328,210Kebbi: 34.64%; PVCs collected: 7,539,941Imo: 41.78%; PVCs collected: 9,093,574Gombe: 25.16%; PVCs collected: 5,475,829Adamawa: 33.81%; PVCs collected: 7,360,293Yobe: 24.69%; PVCs collected: 5,374,648Abia: 30.27%; PVCs collected: 6,587,971Ekiti: 25.52%; PVCs collected: 5,554,358Osun: 36.35%; PVCs collected: 7,911,361Bauchi: 49.49%; PVCs collected: 10,773,347Niger: 42.07%; PVCs collected: 9,156,571Kaduna: 65.03%; PVCs collected: 14,154,729Enugu: 34.76%; PVCs collected: 7,566,095Taraba: 24.41%; PVCs collected: 5,313,201Ebonyi: 23.16%; PVCs collected: 5,040,334CR30.8%6.70MFC15.0%3.26MOG39.9%8.69MOY59.4%12.92MSK39.4%8.57MZM34.9%7.59MLA96.9%21.10MAK41.5%9.03MBY18.1%3.95MON36.8%8.01MDL43.7%9.52MRV55.3%12.04MKW25.2%5.48MKG35.3%7.67MBN45.2%9.85MBR44.4%9.66MKT61.7%13.43MPL34.1%7.42MED34.4%7.49MJG46.4%10.10MAN44.4%9.67MKN100.0%21.77MNS19.9%4.33MKB34.6%7.54MIM41.8%9.09MGM25.2%5.48MAD33.8%7.36MYT24.7%5.37MAB30.3%6.59MEK25.5%5.55MOS36.3%7.91MBA49.5%10.77MNG42.1%9.16MKD65.0%14.15MEN34.8%7.57MTR24.4%5.31MEB23.2%5.04M

Illustrative scenarios only — not official forecasts. Boundaries: GRID3 via geoBoundaries (CC BY 4.0). State search filters the table, not the map.

State/FCT populations — 2040

Selected scenario: Central growth. Showing 37 of 37 geographic units.

State / FCTIllustrative population
Kano21,767,010
Lagos21,100,931
Kaduna14,154,729
Katsina13,432,536
Oyo12,921,567
Rivers12,036,702
Bauchi10,773,347
Jigawa10,097,124
Benue9,848,549
Anambra9,673,018
Borno9,657,449
Delta9,521,635
Niger9,156,571
Imo9,093,574
Akwa Ibom9,034,505
Ogun8,685,097
Sokoto8,572,888
Ondo8,013,045
Osun7,911,361
Kogi7,673,077
Zamfara7,591,647
Enugu7,566,095
Kebbi7,539,941
Edo7,486,284
Plateau7,424,152
Adamawa7,360,293
Cross River6,698,199
Abia6,587,971
Ekiti5,554,358
Kwara5,476,554
Gombe5,475,829
Yobe5,374,648
Taraba5,313,201
Ebonyi5,040,334
Nasarawa4,328,210
Bayelsa3,946,501
FCT3,255,896

Static copy made 2026-11-06 11:56 UTC. Updated daily.